{
 "schema": "swimsignal.sampling-planner",
 "version": "1.0.0",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-31T18:14:16+00:00",
 "claim": {
  "public_wording": "Where the E. coli samples behind SwimSignal's model are thin, and what a simulation found for simple ways of spending a sampling budget. A planning aid for a conversation with a sampler, not a sampling plan: nothing here has been tested in real water.",
  "not_claimed": [
   "that any policy finds more pollution or teaches the model more in real water",
   "that the information policy passed its test: it failed",
   "a sampling plan or allocation for any site or day",
   "the cost of any real sampling programme",
   "that a site without samples is clean or polluted"
  ]
 },
 "field_validation": false,
 "coverage": {
  "samples": 2265,
  "years": [
   "2023",
   "2024",
   "2025",
   "2026"
  ],
  "months": [
   "05",
   "06",
   "07",
   "08",
   "09"
  ],
  "by_month": [
   365,
   516,
   516,
   488,
   380
  ],
  "outside_months": 0,
  "wet": {
   "mm_48h": 10,
   "rows": 1537,
   "wet_rows": 327,
   "sites": 32,
   "period": "2024-2026",
   "rain": "archived lead-0 forecast rain, the concentration study's rows (docs/CONCENTRATION-STUDY-2026-11.md)"
  },
  "spots": {
   "total": 109,
   "rivers": 72,
   "lakes": 37,
   "with_ea": 38,
   "with_local": 1,
   "none_rivers": 52,
   "none_lakes": 18,
   "by_area": [
    {
     "area": "Cumbria and the Lake District",
     "spots": 28,
     "with_ea": 8,
     "with_local": 1
    },
    {
     "area": "East of England",
     "spots": 8,
     "with_ea": 3,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Lancashire",
     "spots": 2,
     "with_ea": 1,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "London",
     "spots": 5,
     "with_ea": 5,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Midlands",
     "spots": 3,
     "with_ea": 3,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "North East",
     "spots": 3,
     "with_ea": 0,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Peak District and Sheffield",
     "spots": 8,
     "with_ea": 0,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Severn and the Welsh borders",
     "spots": 8,
     "with_ea": 4,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "South West",
     "spots": 12,
     "with_ea": 3,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "South and South East",
     "spots": 8,
     "with_ea": 3,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Thames Valley",
     "spots": 11,
     "with_ea": 4,
     "with_local": 0
    },
    {
     "area": "Yorkshire",
     "spots": 13,
     "with_ea": 4,
     "with_local": 0
    }
   ]
  },
  "sites": [
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1101-45800",
    "name": "Derwent Water at Crow Park",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 61,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
     9,
     17,
     13,
     14,
     8
    ],
    "rain_rows": 59,
    "wet_rows": 20
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1203-45625",
    "name": "Windermere, Lakeside YMCA",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     21,
     19,
     17,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 19
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1203-45650",
    "name": "Windermere, Millerground Landing",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     21,
     19,
     17,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 18
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "name": "Windermere, Rayrigg Meadow",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     21,
     19,
     17,
     10
    ],
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "name": "Windermere, Fellfoot",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 81,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     21,
     20,
     17,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 17
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1230-45725",
    "name": "Coniston Water, Brown Howe",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     9,
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     15,
     12,
     9
    ],
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    "wet_rows": 28
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1230-45750",
    "name": "Coniston Water, Boating Centre",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     9,
     15,
     15,
     12,
     9
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 30
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd1230-45775",
    "name": "Coniston Water, Monk Coniston",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     9,
     15,
     15,
     12,
     9
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 29
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd4308-46501",
    "name": "River Ribble at Edisford Bridge",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
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     14,
     5
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    "wet_rows": 22
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukd6300-40752",
    "name": "Sandy Lane, Chester",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 20,
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     0,
     0,
     0,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
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     5,
     4,
     5
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    "wet_rows": 1
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uke2203-08903",
    "name": "Nidd at the Lido, Knaresborough",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     11,
     12,
     14,
     13,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uke2204-08905",
    "name": "Swale above Richmond Falls",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 21,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     0,
     0,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
     2,
     6,
     3,
     5,
     5
    ],
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    "wet_rows": 2
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uke4100-08901",
    "name": "Wharfe at Cromwheel, Ilkley",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     15,
     17,
     19,
     17,
     12
    ],
    "rain_rows": 57,
    "wet_rows": 10
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uke4200-08904",
    "name": "Wharfe at Wilderness Carpark",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 58,
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     0,
     20,
     20,
     18
    ],
    "by_month": [
     11,
     11,
     15,
     13,
     8
    ],
    "rain_rows": 56,
    "wet_rows": 6
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukf1400-09750",
    "name": "Colwick Country Park (West Lake)",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 69,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     15,
     15,
     19
    ],
    "by_month": [
     12,
     13,
     17,
     15,
     12
    ],
    "rain_rows": 45,
    "wet_rows": 8
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukf2208-09701",
    "name": "Rutland Water Whitwell Creek",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 76,
    "by_year": [
     21,
     20,
     20,
     15
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
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     16,
     16,
     14
    ],
    "rain_rows": 52,
    "wet_rows": 8
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukf2208-09702",
    "name": "Rutland Water Sykes Lane",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 70,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     10
    ],
    "by_month": [
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     15,
     14,
     13
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   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukg2100-36070",
    "name": "River Severn at Ironbridge",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 61,
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     0,
     20,
     21,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     8,
     12,
     15,
     15,
     11
    ],
    "rain_rows": 58,
    "wet_rows": 9
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukg2200-36060",
    "name": "River Teme in Ludlow",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 61,
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     0,
     21,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
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     13,
     15,
     15,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": 58,
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukg2200-36071",
    "name": "River Severn in Shrewsbury",
    "kind": "river",
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     20,
     20,
     20
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     15,
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukh1201-09801",
    "name": "Sheep's Green, River Cam",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 61,
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     0,
     21,
     20,
     20
    ],
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     14
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   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukh1401-11051",
    "name": "Friars Meadow, River Stour",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 62,
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     0,
     21,
     20,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
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     13
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   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukh1406-10712",
    "name": "Falcon Meadow, River Waveney",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 20,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     0,
     0,
     20
    ],
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     2,
     5,
     5,
     4,
     4
    ],
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    "wet_rows": 2
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uki1101-11910",
    "name": "Hampstead Heath (Ladies Pond)",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     18,
     19,
     16,
     14
    ],
    "rain_rows": null,
    "wet_rows": null
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uki1101-11920",
    "name": "Hampstead Heath (Mens Pond)",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 60,
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     20,
     15,
     15,
     10
    ],
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     11,
     13,
     13,
     13,
     10
    ],
    "rain_rows": null,
    "wet_rows": null
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uki1101-11930",
    "name": "Hampstead Heath (Mixed Pond)",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 70,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     15,
     15,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     12,
     16,
     15,
     16,
     11
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    "wet_rows": null
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uki1106-11940",
    "name": "The Serpentine - Hyde Park",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 81,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     20,
     21,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     18,
     19,
     17,
     14
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-uki2203-11942",
    "name": "Ham and Kingston, River Thames",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 20,
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     0,
     0,
     0,
     20
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     2,
     5,
     5,
     5,
     3
    ],
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    "wet_rows": 2
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukj1102-11941",
    "name": "Pangbourne Meadow, River Thames",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 21,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     0,
     0,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
     2,
     4,
     5,
     4,
     6
    ],
    "rain_rows": 16,
    "wet_rows": 2
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukj1402-11946",
    "name": "Wolvercote Mill Stream",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 80,
    "by_year": [
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     20,
     19,
     21
    ],
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     14,
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     15,
     17,
     17
    ],
    "rain_rows": 54,
    "wet_rows": 6
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukj1403-11947",
    "name": "Wallingford Beach, River Thames",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 61,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     21
    ],
    "by_month": [
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     13,
     13
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    "wet_rows": 6
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   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukj2310-11945",
    "name": "Frensham Great Pond",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 55,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     15,
     10,
     10
    ],
    "by_month": [
     9,
     13,
     12,
     13,
     8
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    "rain_rows": 34,
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukj3308-19001",
    "name": "River Avon at Fordingbridge",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     11,
     14,
     11,
     12,
     12
    ],
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   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukk1100-36050",
    "name": "Henleaze Lake",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 79,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     19,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     12,
     18,
     17,
     18,
     14
    ],
    "rain_rows": null,
    "wet_rows": null
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukk1302-11760",
    "name": "Cotswold Country Park and Beach",
    "kind": "lake",
    "samples": 56,
    "by_year": [
     20,
     16,
     10,
     10
    ],
    "by_month": [
     13,
     9,
     11,
     11,
     12
    ],
    "rain_rows": null,
    "wet_rows": null
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukk1500-19002",
    "name": "River Avon at Queen Elizabeth Gardens",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 20,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     0,
     0,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     3,
     5,
     4,
     4,
     4
    ],
    "rain_rows": 17,
    "wet_rows": 2
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukk2301-36051",
    "name": "River Frome at Farleigh Hungerford",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 60,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     20,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     10,
     13,
     14,
     11,
     12
    ],
    "rain_rows": 56,
    "wet_rows": 7
   },
   {
    "spot_id": "bw-ukk2304-35201",
    "name": "River Tone at French Weir Park",
    "kind": "river",
    "samples": 61,
    "by_year": [
     0,
     21,
     20,
     20
    ],
    "by_month": [
     10,
     14,
     14,
     14,
     9
    ],
    "rain_rows": 58,
    "wet_rows": 6
   }
  ]
 },
 "policies": [
  {
   "id": "COVER",
   "name": "Equal coverage",
   "rule": "Each week, the sites with the fewest samples so far, on a random weekday."
  },
  {
   "id": "RISK",
   "name": "Wettest, riskiest days",
   "rule": "Each week, the site-days with the highest predicted chance of a high count. Not a pure wet-day rule, which was not simulated, but in practice it picked the wettest days."
  },
  {
   "id": "INFO",
   "name": "Most informative",
   "rule": "Each week, the site-days whose result would teach the model most, by an information score (BALD)."
  },
  {
   "id": "RANDOM",
   "name": "Random",
   "rule": "Each week, site-days drawn at random. A reference, not a proposal."
  }
 ],
 "simulation": {
  "doc": "docs/SAMPLING-PRIORITIES-SIM-2026-10.md",
  "issue": 381,
  "verdict": "fail",
  "rule": "The information policy passes if, against each of equal coverage and random, its site-rate error is lower in at least 60% of the 200 replications and the mean gain's 95% interval is above 0.",
  "verdict_words": "Failed. Against equal coverage it had the lower error in 58.5% of simulated worlds, against 60% needed. Nothing was adopted.",
  "metric": "P, site-rate error: the mean over the 40 sites of the squared difference between the model's rate for the held-out season and the true rate. Lower is better.",
  "world": {
   "sites": 40,
   "never_sampled": 12,
   "weeks": 20,
   "max_per_day": 2,
   "note": "40 made-up sites, 12 of them never sampled before; a 20-week season, at most 2 samples a day. The truth is a logistic model with normal site offsets, the same form the information score assumes."
  },
  "runs": [
   {
    "run": "main",
    "replications": 200,
    "tau": 0.7,
    "budget": 60,
    "per_site": 5.0,
    "P_history_only": 0.004075,
    "strategies": {
     "INFO": {
      "P": 0.002842,
      "P_never": 0.004959,
      "P_sampled": 0.001935,
      "S4_exceedances": 24.105,
      "share_never_sampled_sites": 0.835083,
      "share_lakes": 0.211417,
      "mean_rain48": 10.054812,
      "sites_visited": 12.535
     },
     "COVER": {
      "P": 0.003031,
      "P_never": 0.005533,
      "P_sampled": 0.001959,
      "S4_exceedances": 11.25,
      "share_never_sampled_sites": 1.0,
      "share_lakes": 0.333333,
      "mean_rain48": 3.478041,
      "sites_visited": 12.0
     },
     "RANDOM": {
      "P": 0.0034,
      "P_never": 0.006785,
      "P_sampled": 0.001949,
      "S4_exceedances": 11.43,
      "share_never_sampled_sites": 0.2945,
      "share_lakes": 0.300583,
      "mean_rain48": 3.489139,
      "sites_visited": 31.14
     },
     "RISK": {
      "P": 0.003308,
      "P_never": 0.006712,
      "P_sampled": 0.001849,
      "S4_exceedances": 48.62,
      "share_never_sampled_sites": 0.1755,
      "share_lakes": 0.0,
      "mean_rain48": 15.455184,
      "sites_visited": 15.14
     }
    },
    "info_vs": {
     "COVER": {
      "share_info_lower": 0.585,
      "mean_gain": 0.000189,
      "ci95": [
       7.7e-05,
       0.000306
      ]
     },
     "RANDOM": {
      "share_info_lower": 0.73,
      "mean_gain": 0.000558,
      "ci95": [
       0.000429,
       0.000693
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "tau0",
    "replications": 100,
    "tau": 0.0,
    "budget": 60,
    "per_site": 5.0,
    "P_history_only": 0.00157,
    "strategies": {
     "INFO": {
      "P": 0.000491,
      "P_never": 0.000499,
      "P_sampled": 0.000487,
      "S4_exceedances": 19.17,
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     "RANDOM": {
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   },
   {
    "run": "budget120",
    "replications": 100,
    "tau": 0.7,
    "budget": 120,
    "per_site": 10.0,
    "P_history_only": 0.004107,
    "strategies": {
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     },
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     },
     "RANDOM": {
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     },
     "RISK": {
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    },
    "info_vs": {
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      "ci95": [
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     },
     "RANDOM": {
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      "mean_gain": 0.000656,
      "ci95": [
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     }
    }
   }
  ]
 },
 "cost": {
  "samples": 60,
  "per_sample_gbp": 100,
  "sites": 12,
  "note": "Starting values to change, not a quote: 60 samples over 12 sites is the simulation's season. £100 a sample is a round figure; a lab's price, travel and staff time are not counted."
 },
 "field_study": "docs/SAMPLING-PLANNER-CONTRACT-v1.md#the-field-study-an-efficiency-claim-would-need",
 "attribution": [
  "Environment Agency bathing water quality data, Open Government Licence v3.0"
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "file": "data/research/ecoli_evidence.v1.json",
   "sha256": "4b706230bb532d61e60d791f8d08b6e4b4ecf0883ffa55026f49ca855b5e302f"
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  {
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   "sha256": "3dad94f4323f6c141872575eb75ec4274ed182291efee3046d51d0502c9fb0ae"
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   "sha256": "fec953031966c910f73bbf1c8dc952b0895d042d70fd71943b636fabceda2de3"
  },
  {
   "file": "scripts/export_sampling_planner.py",
   "sha256": "245d717bd6787b952d98d0bd501ebdc3844953caece7ee03de3b5ae51616ebfa"
  }
 ]
}