{ "schema": "swimsignal.forecast-record-exploration", "version": "0.1.0", "status": "exploratory, on outcomes already read; nothing from an active evaluation window", "cutoff": "2026-09-30", "seed": 20261102, "draws": 2000, "warn_at": 0.25, "last_sample_days": 30, "inputs_sha256": { "data/research/ecoli_evidence.v1.json": "4b706230bb532d61e60d791f8d08b6e4b4ecf0883ffa55026f49ca855b5e302f", "data/processed/verification_2025.csv": "f96725960276bfbff4371c51019f3efa505b352d2ee4a1469001d7461cd7b780", "data/processed/verification_leads_2025.csv": "c95ddeb1d9fbe7c62a33564b6dcf0a2498f830d989f755de66570ea0cee8b2bf", "data/processed/reliability_2025.csv": "0166773ee073ca8162db8fa8cd28930c2b24462917d5be456266bb5cca73c629", "data/processed/prf_comparison.json": "5503c5db6e738b9955b436c7f1e392cd89c183960791c3449af4c00db2038bd8" }, "ecoli": { "all": { "samples": 1537, "sites": 32, "over_900": 208, "brier": { "model": 0.0824, "usual": 0.1144, "site_usual": 0.1102, "last": 0.1072 }, "auc": { "model": 0.854, "usual": 0.619, "site_usual": 0.771, "last": 0.745 }, "skill_vs_usual": 0.28, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": -0.032, "ci": [ -0.0494, -0.0156 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": -0.0278, "ci": [ -0.0489, -0.0083 ] }, "last": { "diff": -0.0248, "ci": [ -0.0394, -0.0121 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 121, "misses": 87, "false_alarms": 125, "quiet_correct": 1204 }, "last": { "hits": 85, "misses": 123, "false_alarms": 117, "quiet_correct": 1212 } } }, "river": { "samples": 900, "sites": 20, "over_900": 192, "brier": { "model": 0.1231, "usual": 0.1779, "site_usual": 0.1712, "last": 0.1664 }, "auc": { "model": 0.829, "usual": 0.355, "site_usual": 0.637, "last": 0.593 }, "skill_vs_usual": 0.308, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": -0.0548, "ci": [ -0.0787, -0.0306 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": -0.0481, "ci": [ -0.0773, -0.0189 ] }, "last": { "diff": -0.0433, "ci": [ -0.0617, -0.0236 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 121, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 125, "quiet_correct": 583 }, "last": { "hits": 84, "misses": 108, "false_alarms": 111, "quiet_correct": 597 } } }, "lake": { "samples": 637, "sites": 12, "over_900": 16, "brier": { "model": 0.025, "usual": 0.0246, "site_usual": 0.024, "last": 0.0237 }, "auc": { "model": 0.468, "usual": 0.374, "site_usual": 0.813, "last": 0.609 }, "skill_vs_usual": -0.016, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": 0.0004, "ci": [ -0.0005, 0.0015 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": 0.001, "ci": [ -0.0004, 0.0027 ] }, "last": { "diff": 0.0013, "ci": [ -0.0014, 0.0049 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 0, "misses": 16, "false_alarms": 0, "quiet_correct": 621 }, "last": { "hits": 1, "misses": 15, "false_alarms": 6, "quiet_correct": 615 } } }, "by_year": { "2024": { "samples": 514, "sites": 26, "over_900": 102, "brier": { "model": 0.1035, "usual": 0.1529, "site_usual": 0.1373, "last": 0.1361 }, "auc": { "model": 0.89, "usual": 0.761, "site_usual": 0.847, "last": 0.841 }, "skill_vs_usual": 0.323, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": -0.0494, "ci": [ -0.0896, -0.0129 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": -0.0338, "ci": [ -0.0646, -0.0072 ] }, "last": { "diff": -0.0326, "ci": [ -0.0583, -0.0079 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 75, "misses": 27, "false_alarms": 74, "quiet_correct": 338 }, "last": { "hits": 57, "misses": 45, "false_alarms": 39, "quiet_correct": 373 } } }, "2025": { "samples": 505, "sites": 26, "over_900": 59, "brier": { "model": 0.0783, "usual": 0.0996, "site_usual": 0.1026, "last": 0.0948 }, "auc": { "model": 0.803, "usual": 0.666, "site_usual": 0.789, "last": 0.722 }, "skill_vs_usual": 0.214, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": -0.0213, "ci": [ -0.0364, -0.0094 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": -0.0243, "ci": [ -0.0487, -0.0049 ] }, "last": { "diff": -0.0165, "ci": [ -0.0323, -0.0044 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 30, "misses": 29, "false_alarms": 38, "quiet_correct": 408 }, "last": { "hits": 16, "misses": 43, "false_alarms": 27, "quiet_correct": 419 } } }, "2026": { "samples": 518, "sites": 32, "over_900": 47, "brier": { "model": 0.0655, "usual": 0.0907, "site_usual": 0.0908, "last": 0.0907 }, "auc": { "model": 0.82, "usual": 0.646, "site_usual": 0.777, "last": 0.684 }, "skill_vs_usual": 0.278, "model_minus": { "usual": { "diff": -0.0252, "ci": [ -0.0364, -0.0155 ] }, "site_usual": { "diff": -0.0253, "ci": [ -0.0416, -0.0108 ] }, "last": { "diff": -0.0252, "ci": [ -0.0359, -0.0156 ] } }, "at_line": { "model": { "hits": 16, "misses": 31, "false_alarms": 13, "quiet_correct": 458 }, "last": { "hits": 12, "misses": 35, "false_alarms": 51, "quiet_correct": 420 } } } }, "sites": { "ukd1101-45800": { "name": "Derwent Water at Crow Park", "kind": "lake", "samples": 59, "over_900": 12, "misses": 12, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1203-45625": { "name": "Windermere, Lakeside YMCA", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1203-45650": { "name": "Windermere, Millerground Landing", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1203-45675": { "name": "Windermere, Rayrigg Meadow", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1203-45700": { "name": "Windermere, Fellfoot", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1230-45725": { "name": "Coniston Water, Brown Howe", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 1, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1230-45750": { "name": "Coniston Water, Boating Centre", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 2, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd1230-45775": { "name": "Coniston Water, Monk Coniston", "kind": "lake", "samples": 57, "over_900": 1, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukd4308-46501": { "name": "River Ribble at Edisford Bridge", "kind": "river", "samples": 59, "over_900": 25, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 12, "hits": 23 }, "ukd6300-40752": { "name": "Sandy Lane, Chester", "kind": "river", "samples": 17, "over_900": 2, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "uke2203-08903": { "name": "Nidd at the Lido, Knaresborough", "kind": "river", "samples": 57, "over_900": 21, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 6, "hits": 12 }, "uke2204-08905": { "name": "Swale above Richmond Falls", "kind": "river", "samples": 17, "over_900": 5, "misses": 4, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 1 }, "uke4100-08901": { "name": "Wharfe at Cromwheel, Ilkley", "kind": "river", "samples": 57, "over_900": 17, "misses": 8, "false_alarms": 11, "hits": 9 }, "uke4200-08904": { "name": "Wharfe at Wilderness Carpark", "kind": "river", "samples": 56, "over_900": 8, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 15, "hits": 7 }, "ukf1400-09750": { "name": "Colwick Country Park (West Lake)", "kind": "lake", "samples": 45, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukf2208-09701": { "name": "Rutland Water Whitwell Creek", "kind": "lake", "samples": 52, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukf2208-09702": { "name": "Rutland Water Sykes Lane", "kind": "lake", "samples": 48, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukg2100-36070": { "name": "River Severn at Ironbridge", "kind": "river", "samples": 58, "over_900": 11, "misses": 5, "false_alarms": 7, "hits": 6 }, "ukg2200-36060": { "name": "River Teme in Ludlow", "kind": "river", "samples": 58, "over_900": 8, "misses": 3, "false_alarms": 3, "hits": 5 }, "ukg2200-36071": { "name": "River Severn in Shrewsbury", "kind": "river", "samples": 57, "over_900": 10, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 10, "hits": 8 }, "ukh1201-09801": { "name": "Sheep's Green, River Cam", "kind": "river", "samples": 57, "over_900": 29, "misses": 12, "false_alarms": 6, "hits": 17 }, "ukh1401-11051": { "name": "Friars Meadow, River Stour", "kind": "river", "samples": 58, "over_900": 5, "misses": 3, "false_alarms": 20, "hits": 2 }, "ukh1406-10712": { "name": "Falcon Meadow, River Waveney", "kind": "river", "samples": 17, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 1, "hits": 0 }, "uki2203-11942": { "name": "Ham and Kingston, River Thames", "kind": "river", "samples": 18, "over_900": 1, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukj1102-11941": { "name": "Pangbourne Meadow, River Thames", "kind": "river", "samples": 16, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukj1402-11946": { "name": "Wolvercote Mill Stream", "kind": "river", "samples": 54, "over_900": 2, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 5, "hits": 1 }, "ukj1403-11947": { "name": "Wallingford Beach, River Thames", "kind": "river", "samples": 56, "over_900": 2, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 5, "hits": 2 }, "ukj2310-11945": { "name": "Frensham Great Pond", "kind": "lake", "samples": 34, "over_900": 0, "misses": 0, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 0 }, "ukj3308-19001": { "name": "River Avon at Fordingbridge", "kind": "river", "samples": 57, "over_900": 3, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 11, "hits": 2 }, "ukk1500-19002": { "name": "River Avon at Queen Elizabeth Gardens", "kind": "river", "samples": 17, "over_900": 4, "misses": 3, "false_alarms": 0, "hits": 1 }, "ukk2301-36051": { "name": "River Frome at Farleigh Hungerford", "kind": "river", "samples": 56, "over_900": 11, "misses": 4, "false_alarms": 6, "hits": 7 }, "ukk2304-35201": { "name": "River Tone at French Weir Park", "kind": "river", "samples": 58, "over_900": 28, "misses": 10, "false_alarms": 7, "hits": 18 } }, "miss_estimates": { "kind": "river", "n": 71, "median": 0.155, "under_0_1": 17 }, "references": { "usual": "the over-900 rate for rivers or lakes in the other years", "site_usual": "this bathing water's over-900 rate in the other years (5 samples or more, else 'usual')", "last": "from the previous sample here within 30 days: the other years' over-900 rate after an over, or after a not-over; 'usual' when there is none" }, "note": "Hindsight estimates: the production model's form refitted leaving out each year, with archived lead-0 forecast rain (docs/CONCENTRATION-STUDY-2026-11.md). Not what the site issued on the day.", "samples": [ { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-05-02T11:01+01:00", "ecoli": 10, "y": false, "model": 0.03, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.020585048754062838 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-05-15T16:00+01:00", "ecoli": 520, "y": false, "model": 0.058, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-05-21T11:50+01:00", "ecoli": 18, "y": false, "model": 0.021, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-05-29T13:40+01:00", "ecoli": 200, "y": false, "model": 0.04, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-06-03T12:45+01:00", "ecoli": 64, "y": false, "model": 0.019, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-06-10T10:30+01:00", "ecoli": 110, "y": false, "model": 0.04, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-06-16T10:25+01:00", "ecoli": 82, "y": false, "model": 0.034, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-06-20T11:20+01:00", "ecoli": 36, "y": false, "model": 0.019, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-06-25T12:30+01:00", "ecoli": 140, "y": false, "model": 0.02, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-07-01T13:15+01:00", "ecoli": 160, "y": false, "model": 0.025, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-07-11T14:40+01:00", "ecoli": 110, "y": false, "model": 0.039, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-07-16T12:36+01:00", "ecoli": 270, "y": false, "model": 0.028, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-07-23T10:00+01:00", "ecoli": 160, "y": false, "model": 0.043, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-02T13:15+01:00", "ecoli": 220, "y": false, "model": 0.027, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-09T12:10+01:00", "ecoli": 1400, "y": true, "model": 0.04, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-12T12:50+01:00", "ecoli": 300, "y": false, "model": 0.019, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.38461538461538464 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-18T12:00+01:00", "ecoli": 140, "y": false, "model": 0.027, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-22T11:02+01:00", "ecoli": 470, "y": false, "model": 0.049, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-08-28T10:56+01:00", "ecoli": 55, "y": false, "model": 0.062, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2024-09-05T15:06+01:00", "ecoli": 45, "y": false, "model": 0.039, "usual": 0.020585048754062838, "site_usual": 0.2682926829268293, "last": 0.021621621621621623 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2025-05-06T11:02+01:00", "ecoli": 45, "y": false, "model": 0.017, "usual": 0.013948497854077254, "site_usual": 0.0975609756097561, "last": 0.013948497854077254 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2025-05-21T10:39+01:00", "ecoli": 73, "y": false, "model": 0.018, "usual": 0.013948497854077254, "site_usual": 0.0975609756097561, "last": 0.015748031496062992 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2025-06-02T13:21+01:00", "ecoli": 91, "y": false, "model": 0.021, "usual": 0.013948497854077254, "site_usual": 0.0975609756097561, "last": 0.015748031496062992 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2025-06-03T11:35+01:00", "ecoli": 4200, "y": true, "model": 0.01, "usual": 0.013948497854077254, "site_usual": 0.0975609756097561, "last": 0.015748031496062992 }, { "bw_id": "ukd1101-45800", "t": "2025-06-06T12:40+01:00", "ecoli": 260, "y": false, "model": 0.014, "usual": 0.013948497854077254, "site_usual": 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"lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5 }, { "n": 10782.0, "forecast": 0.5486507954180051, "observed": 0.48636616583194214, "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6000000000000001 }, { "n": 9430.0, "forecast": 0.6492747471591057, "observed": 0.5837751855779427, "lo": 0.6000000000000001, "hi": 0.7000000000000001 }, { "n": 8968.0, "forecast": 0.7496058875816839, "observed": 0.68521409455843, "lo": 0.7000000000000001, "hi": 0.8 }, { "n": 8311.0, "forecast": 0.8491166896112198, "observed": 0.7889543977860667, "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9 }, { "n": 4107.0, "forecast": 0.9341463956374676, "observed": 0.8502556610664719, "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1.0 } ], "note": "United Utilities overflows, trained 2023-24 and tested on 2025 (overflow-days). The site's model was refit on 2023-25 after this test. Other companies are not in this test." }, "ea_comparison": { "season": [ "2026-05-15", "2026-09-30" ], "rules": { "threshold": 900, "swimsignal_warns_at": 0.25, "ea": "the latest prediction for the site published before the sample was taken and not yet expired", "swimsignal": "the latest forecast for the spot and day issued before the sample was taken", "brier_ea": "the EA's level read as 1 (increased) or 0 (normal)", "climatology": "the E. coli model's training-period exceedance rate for rivers and lakes" }, "season_samples": { "n_samples": 720, "n_with_ea_prediction": 598, "n_over_threshold": 61, "first": "2026-05-15", "last": "2026-09-28", "ea": { "n_increased": 13, "hits": 1, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 12, "quiet_correct": 541, "increased_because": { "Advice against bathing: pollution incident": 12, "Risk of reduced water quality due to harmful algae": 1 }, "increased_at": { "River Teme in Ludlow": 9, "Frensham Great Pond": 3, "Windermere, Fellfoot": 1 } } }, "both": { "n_samples": 30, "n_sites": 22, "n_over_threshold": 2, "ea": { "brier": 0.13333333333333333, "n_increased": 2, "hits": 0, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 2, "quiet_correct": 26 }, "swimsignal": { "brier": 0.07180407575317783, "mean_estimate": 0.11345795254757343, "warn_at": 0.25, "n_warned": 3, "hits": 0, "misses": 2, "false_alarms": 3, "quiet_correct": 25 }, "climatology_brier": 0.07886285933333331, "first": "2026-09-16", "last": "2026-09-28" }, "both_rivers": { "n_samples": 18, "n_sites": 12, "n_over_threshold": 1, "ea": { "brier": 0.16666666666666666, "n_increased": 2, "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 2, "quiet_correct": 15 }, "swimsignal": { "brier": 0.06618064309710087, "mean_estimate": 0.1681272244747746, "warn_at": 0.25, "n_warned": 3, "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 3, "quiet_correct": 14 }, "climatology_brier": 0.07824365444444442 }, "verdict": "SwimSignal's E. coli estimate did better than the Environment Agency's daily risk prediction on the 30 samples both covered, at 22 sites, 16 to 28 September 2026: Brier score 0.072 against 0.133, where always forecasting the long-run rate scores 0.079. Neither warned before either of the 2 samples over 900. Too few samples to judge either forecast.", "credit": "Environment Agency bathing water risk predictions and samples \u00a9 Environment Agency copyright and/or database right, Open Government Licence v3.0. Compared by SwimSignal; the EA does not endorse it." } }