{
 "schema": "swimsignal.lake-from-space-exploration",
 "version": "0.1.0",
 "status": "exploratory, on data already seen by #386; not a test and not a confirmation",
 "seed": 20261101,
 "draws": 2000,
 "inputs_sha256": {
  "data/research/lake_observations.v1.json": "262c4ae352e6eb418a33823096c0bd6bfe3777976345d3834b9ef3199dcab710",
  "docs/LAKE-CHLOROPHYLL-NDCI-TEST-2026-10-score.json": "3f0a6d8db65542ec6d793c5d631f65180b92ae3772c80b458b1973ab95ec1935"
 },
 "reproduction": {
  "pairs": 216,
  "lakes": 38,
  "pooled_rho": 0.491,
  "ci": [
   0.295,
   0.653
  ],
  "lag_days": {
   "-1": 68,
   "0": 79,
   "1": 69
  },
  "record_386": {
   "pairs": 207,
   "lakes": 38,
   "rho": 0.502,
   "ci": [
    0.2997,
    0.667
   ],
   "lag_days": {
    "-1": 65,
    "0": 76,
    "1": 66
   }
  },
  "note": "Rebuilt from the published observation file, not #386's private rows. Three Windermere and Frensham points use the bathing water's 300 m core here, not the WQA point's own."
 },
 "within_season": {
  "rows": 168,
  "lakes": 29,
  "rho": 0.345,
  "ci": [
   0.19,
   0.496
  ],
  "month_removed": {
   "rho": 0.245,
   "ci": [
    0.071,
    0.405
   ]
  },
  "by_type": {
   "shallow": {
    "rows": 74,
    "lakes": 11,
    "rho": 0.341,
    "ci": [
     0.069,
     0.556
    ]
   },
   "deeper": {
    "rows": 73,
    "lakes": 13,
    "rho": 0.36,
    "ci": [
     0.121,
     0.636
    ]
   }
  },
  "note": "Each pair minus its lake-season mean of index and log10 lab value, so lake level and the season's level are removed; only change inside a season is left. Lake-seasons with one pair drop out. The shallow/deeper split is #386's, stated before its run; neither group is a lead finding here."
 },
 "direction": {
  "by_threshold": {
   "any": {
    "min_abs_d_ndci": 0.0,
    "changes": 94,
    "same_direction": 0.681,
    "ci": [
     0.597,
     0.755
    ]
   },
   "over_repeat_median": {
    "min_abs_d_ndci": 0.0315,
    "changes": 77,
    "same_direction": 0.688,
    "ci": [
     0.594,
     0.769
    ]
   },
   "over_repeat_p90": {
    "min_abs_d_ndci": 0.1664,
    "changes": 19,
    "same_direction": 0.737,
    "ci": [
     0.579,
     0.9
    ]
   }
  },
  "by_type": {
   "shallow": {
    "changes": 39,
    "lakes": 11,
    "same_direction": 0.615,
    "ci": [
     0.477,
     0.743
    ]
   },
   "deeper": {
    "changes": 47,
    "lakes": 13,
    "same_direction": 0.723,
    "ci": [
     0.61,
     0.8
    ]
   }
  },
  "calendar": {
   "changes": 89,
   "calendar_same_direction": 0.753,
   "index_same_direction": 0.685,
   "index_minus_calendar": -0.067,
   "ci": [
    -0.233,
    0.091
   ],
   "note": "Changes between two different months only. The calendar guess uses other lakes' monthly means of log10 lab chlorophyll from the same pairs."
  },
  "changes": [
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-05-21",
    "to": "2023-06-06",
    "days": 16,
    "d_ndci": -0.12128,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1669
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-06-06",
    "to": "2023-06-12",
    "days": 6,
    "d_ndci": 0.15653,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.5362
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-06-12",
    "to": "2023-07-03",
    "days": 21,
    "d_ndci": -0.07713,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1019
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-07-03",
    "to": "2023-07-12",
    "days": 9,
    "d_ndci": -0.05212,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.029
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-07-12",
    "to": "2023-08-10",
    "days": 29,
    "d_ndci": 0.07254,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.3932
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-08-10",
    "to": "2023-08-30",
    "days": 20,
    "d_ndci": 0.0482,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.4222
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-08-30",
    "to": "2023-09-06",
    "days": 7,
    "d_ndci": -0.00232,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.3267
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-05-30",
    "to": "2024-06-23",
    "days": 24,
    "d_ndci": -0.05472,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.2126
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-06-23",
    "to": "2024-07-14",
    "days": 21,
    "d_ndci": 0.07113,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.7626
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-07-14",
    "to": "2024-08-06",
    "days": 23,
    "d_ndci": -0.04462,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1329
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-08-06",
    "to": "2024-08-13",
    "days": 7,
    "d_ndci": -0.02141,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.0109
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-08-13",
    "to": "2024-09-02",
    "days": 20,
    "d_ndci": 0.07169,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.0566
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
    "from": "2025-05-19",
    "to": "2025-07-08",
    "days": 50,
    "d_ndci": 0.0395,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.3337
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
    "from": "2025-07-08",
    "to": "2025-07-24",
    "days": 16,
    "d_ndci": 0.02983,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.1479
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45675",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
    "from": "2025-07-24",
    "to": "2025-08-12",
    "days": 19,
    "d_ndci": 0.05286,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.9076
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-05-26",
    "to": "2023-06-12",
    "days": 17,
    "d_ndci": -0.09698,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1249
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-06-12",
    "to": "2023-07-03",
    "days": 21,
    "d_ndci": 0.18386,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.4309
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-07-03",
    "to": "2023-08-30",
    "days": 58,
    "d_ndci": -0.07888,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.02
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "from": "2023-08-30",
    "to": "2023-09-06",
    "days": 7,
    "d_ndci": 0.07544,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.0429
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-05-30",
    "to": "2024-08-13",
    "days": 75,
    "d_ndci": -0.08679,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.1196
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukd1203-45700",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
    "from": "2025-05-19",
    "to": "2025-08-12",
    "days": 85,
    "d_ndci": 0.10016,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.1841
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "bw-ukj2310-11945",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2026,
    "from": "2026-05-28",
    "to": "2026-07-28",
    "days": 61,
    "d_ndci": 0.33823,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.6871
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ANT160",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-06-20",
    "to": "2024-06-20",
    "days": 0,
    "d_ndci": 0.0,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.0435
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ANT160",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2026,
    "from": "2026-05-28",
    "to": "2026-06-25",
    "days": 28,
    "d_ndci": -0.02529,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.1024
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ANT160",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2026,
    "from": "2026-06-25",
    "to": "2026-08-26",
    "days": 62,
    "d_ndci": 0.13814,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.0414
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ANT160",
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    "season": 2026,
    "from": "2026-08-26",
    "to": "2026-09-28",
    "days": 33,
    "d_ndci": -0.07709,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1171
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-BUR170A",
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    "season": 2023,
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    "to": "2023-09-22",
    "days": 32,
    "d_ndci": -0.1434,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.2414
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-BUR170A",
    "lake_type": null,
    "season": 2024,
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    "to": "2024-08-14",
    "days": 27,
    "d_ndci": -0.03065,
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   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-BUR170A",
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    "season": 2024,
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    "to": "2024-08-14",
    "days": 0,
    "d_ndci": 0.0,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1399
   },
   {
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    "lake_type": null,
    "season": 2025,
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    "to": "2025-05-21",
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    "d_ndci": 0.0,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.2788
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   {
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    "season": 2026,
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    "d_ndci": 0.0,
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   {
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    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2023,
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    "days": 48,
    "d_ndci": 0.08413,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.2808
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-BUR300",
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   {
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    "days": 29,
    "d_ndci": -0.00689,
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   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-BUR300",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
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    "d_ndci": 0.0,
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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    "days": 34,
    "d_ndci": -0.56917,
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   {
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    "season": 2026,
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    "d_ndci": 0.767,
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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    "d_ndci": 0.09572,
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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    "days": 62,
    "d_ndci": -0.01053,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-RAVENWFD",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
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    "days": 30,
    "d_ndci": 0.00944,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-RAVENWFD",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
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    "d_ndci": 0.02866,
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   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-RAVENWFD",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
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    "days": 29,
    "d_ndci": 0.11305,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-RAVENWFD",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2026,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-RAVENWFD",
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    "d_ndci": 0.11291,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ROL010",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
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    "days": 34,
    "d_ndci": 0.04994,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ROL010",
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    "days": 34,
    "d_ndci": -0.16517,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ROL010",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ROL010",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
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    "to": "2026-09-29",
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   {
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   {
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    "days": 34,
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   {
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    "days": 29,
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   {
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR020",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2025,
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    "d_ndci": -0.04718,
    "d_log10_chl": 0.1823
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR020",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2026,
    "from": "2026-08-21",
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    "d_ndci": -0.02983,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.0918
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR030A",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2023,
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    "days": 139,
    "d_ndci": -0.08317,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR030A",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2024,
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    "d_ndci": 0.0,
    "d_log10_chl": -0.1068
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR030A",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2024,
    "from": "2024-07-19",
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    "days": 34,
    "d_ndci": -0.03397,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-AN-THR030A",
    "lake_type": "shallow",
    "season": 2026,
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    "lake_id": "wqa-MD-28548100",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
    "season": 2026,
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    "season": 2023,
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   {
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    "season": 2021,
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    "season": 2021,
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    "days": 97,
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    "lake_id": "wqa-NE-44100119",
    "lake_type": "deeper",
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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    "days": 68,
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   {
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    "to": "2024-09-13",
    "days": 29,
    "d_ndci": -0.00505,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-SW-50900003",
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    "to": "2025-08-05",
    "days": 28,
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    "d_log10_chl": 0.3188
   },
   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-SW-50900003",
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    "to": "2026-07-16",
    "days": 55,
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   {
    "lake_id": "wqa-SW-50900003",
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    "days": 22,
    "d_ndci": 0.10602,
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  ],
  "note": "Consecutive pairs at one lake in one season. 0.5 is a coin toss."
 },
 "detectable_change": {
  "repeat_median": 0.0315,
  "repeat_p90": 0.1664,
  "lake_seasons": 84,
  "season_spread_p10_p90_median": 0.16955750000000003,
  "share_spread_over_repeat_p90": 0.512,
  "note": "Spread is the 10th-to-90th percentile range of one lake's usable in-season readings in one season (seasons with 6 or more). Repeat noise is two readings of one lake on one date."
 },
 "gaps": {
  "lakes": 14,
  "median_gap_days": 5.0,
  "p75_gap_days": 12.5,
  "p90_gap_days": 22.0,
  "longest_gap_days": 78,
  "share_gaps_over_14_days": 0.21,
  "months_with_a_reading": {
   "5": 0.976,
   "6": 0.94,
   "7": 0.917,
   "8": 0.964,
   "9": 0.988
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  "per_lake": {
   "bw-ukd1101-45800": {
    "name": "Derwent Water at Crow Park",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 60
   },
   "bw-ukd1203-45625": {
    "name": "Windermere, Lakeside YMCA",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 60
   },
   "bw-ukd1203-45650": {
    "name": "Windermere, Millerground Landing",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 45
   },
   "bw-ukd1203-45675": {
    "name": "Windermere, Rayrigg Meadow",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 45
   },
   "bw-ukd1203-45700": {
    "name": "Windermere, Fellfoot",
    "median_gap_days": 7.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 78
   },
   "bw-ukd1230-45725": {
    "name": "Coniston Water, Brown Howe",
    "median_gap_days": 7.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 38
   },
   "bw-ukd1230-45750": {
    "name": "Coniston Water, Boating Centre",
    "median_gap_days": 6.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 48
   },
   "bw-ukd1230-45775": {
    "name": "Coniston Water, Monk Coniston",
    "median_gap_days": 6.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 58
   },
   "bw-ukf1400-09750": {
    "name": "Colwick Country Park (West Lake)",
    "median_gap_days": 7.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 55
   },
   "bw-ukf2208-09701": {
    "name": "Rutland Water Whitwell Creek",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 65
   },
   "bw-ukf2208-09702": {
    "name": "Rutland Water Sykes Lane",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 30
   },
   "bw-uki1106-11940": {
    "name": "The Serpentine - Hyde Park",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 30
   },
   "bw-ukj2310-11945": {
    "name": "Frensham Great Pond",
    "median_gap_days": 10.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 55
   },
   "bw-ukk1302-11760": {
    "name": "Cotswold Country Park and Beach",
    "median_gap_days": 5.0,
    "longest_gap_days": 48
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  },
  "note": "Gaps are counted inside 1 May-30 September of each season with images, season edges included. Seasons with no images at all (2022) are not counted as gaps."
 },
 "pairing_yield": {
  "table": [
   {
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    "rate": 0.154,
    "points": 29,
    "points_paired": 16
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   {
    "group": "all",
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    "samples": 120,
    "pairs": 0,
    "rate": 0.0,
    "points": 29,
    "points_paired": 0
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   {
    "group": "all",
    "season": 2023,
    "samples": 143,
    "pairs": 43,
    "rate": 0.301,
    "points": 33,
    "points_paired": 22
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   {
    "group": "all",
    "season": 2024,
    "samples": 137,
    "pairs": 41,
    "rate": 0.299,
    "points": 24,
    "points_paired": 19
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   {
    "group": "all",
    "season": 2025,
    "samples": 148,
    "pairs": 38,
    "rate": 0.257,
    "points": 31,
    "points_paired": 24
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   {
    "group": "all",
    "season": 2026,
    "samples": 142,
    "pairs": 66,
    "rate": 0.465,
    "points": 36,
    "points_paired": 31
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   {
    "group": "deeper",
    "season": 2021,
    "samples": 59,
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    "rate": 0.136,
    "points": 14,
    "points_paired": 5
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   {
    "group": "deeper",
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    "samples": 56,
    "pairs": 0,
    "rate": 0.0,
    "points": 13,
    "points_paired": 0
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   {
    "group": "deeper",
    "season": 2023,
    "samples": 78,
    "pairs": 27,
    "rate": 0.346,
    "points": 17,
    "points_paired": 11
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   {
    "group": "deeper",
    "season": 2024,
    "samples": 67,
    "pairs": 14,
    "rate": 0.209,
    "points": 8,
    "points_paired": 5
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   {
    "group": "deeper",
    "season": 2025,
    "samples": 81,
    "pairs": 19,
    "rate": 0.235,
    "points": 14,
    "points_paired": 10
   },
   {
    "group": "deeper",
    "season": 2026,
    "samples": 64,
    "pairs": 24,
    "rate": 0.375,
    "points": 17,
    "points_paired": 14
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   {
    "group": "shallow",
    "season": 2021,
    "samples": 45,
    "pairs": 8,
    "rate": 0.178,
    "points": 11,
    "points_paired": 8
   },
   {
    "group": "shallow",
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    "samples": 43,
    "pairs": 0,
    "rate": 0.0,
    "points": 11,
    "points_paired": 0
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   {
    "group": "shallow",
    "season": 2023,
    "samples": 45,
    "pairs": 9,
    "rate": 0.2,
    "points": 12,
    "points_paired": 7
   },
   {
    "group": "shallow",
    "season": 2024,
    "samples": 58,
    "pairs": 22,
    "rate": 0.379,
    "points": 13,
    "points_paired": 11
   },
   {
    "group": "shallow",
    "season": 2025,
    "samples": 51,
    "pairs": 16,
    "rate": 0.314,
    "points": 13,
    "points_paired": 11
   },
   {
    "group": "shallow",
    "season": 2026,
    "samples": 57,
    "pairs": 34,
    "rate": 0.596,
    "points": 14,
    "points_paired": 12
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2021,
    "samples": 19,
    "pairs": 3,
    "rate": 0.158,
    "points": 4,
    "points_paired": 3
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2022,
    "samples": 21,
    "pairs": 0,
    "rate": 0.0,
    "points": 5,
    "points_paired": 0
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2023,
    "samples": 20,
    "pairs": 7,
    "rate": 0.35,
    "points": 4,
    "points_paired": 4
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2024,
    "samples": 12,
    "pairs": 5,
    "rate": 0.417,
    "points": 3,
    "points_paired": 3
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2025,
    "samples": 16,
    "pairs": 3,
    "rate": 0.188,
    "points": 4,
    "points_paired": 3
   },
   {
    "group": "unknown",
    "season": 2026,
    "samples": 21,
    "pairs": 8,
    "rate": 0.381,
    "points": 5,
    "points_paired": 5
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  "shallow_pairs_per_season": [
   8,
   9,
   22,
   16,
   34
  ],
  "shallow_lakes_paired_per_season": [
   8,
   7,
   11,
   11,
   12
  ],
  "protocol_minimum": {
   "pairs": 30,
   "lakes": 6,
   "source": "docs/SATELLITE-RECOVERY-2026-10.md section 5 (draft)"
  }
 },
 "quality_flags": [
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   "lake_id": "wqa-AN-ANT160",
   "name": "Barton Broad",
   "date": "2024-06-21",
   "ndci": -0.49714,
   "lake_median": 0.1538,
   "robust_z": -14.4,
   "clear_core": 154,
   "n_core": 154,
   "sun_elevation_deg": null
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